Go to Publications: In Print or Accepted / In Press.

Click here for Kiona Ogle’s Google Scholar Profile that includes a list of publications in print, links to PDFs, and publication statistics (such as citations and H-index).

In Print:


  1. Ogle, K. and J.J. Barber. Ensuring identifiability in hierarchical mixed effects Bayesian models. Ecological Applications. abstract
  2. McDowell, N.G., C.D. Allen, K. Anderson-Teixeira, B.H. Aukema, B. Bond-Lamberty, J. Clark, M. Dietze, C. Grossiord, A. Hanbury-Brown, R.B. Jackson, D.J. Johnson, L. Kueppers, J.W. Lichstein, K. Ogle, B. Poulter, R. Seidl, M.G. Turner, M. Uriarte, A.P. Walker, and C. Xu. Pervasive shifts in vegetation dynamics in a changing world. Science, Vol. 368, Issue 6494, eaaz9463. abstract
  3. Guo, J.S., L. Gear, K. Hultine, G. Koch, and K. Ogle. Non-structural carbohydrate dynamics associated with antecedent stem water potential and air temperature in a dominant desert shrub. Plant, Cell & Environment, 43:1467-1483. abstract
  4. Guo, J.S., K.R. Hultine, G.W. Koch, H. Kropp, and K. Ogle (2020). Temporal shifts in iso/anisohydry revealed from daily observations of plant water potential in a dominant desert shrub. New Phytologist, 225:713-726. abstract
  5. Samuels-Crow, K.E., K. Ogle, and M.E. Litvak (2020). Atmosphere‐soil interactions govern ecosystem flux sensitivity to environmental conditions in semiarid woody ecosystems over varying timescales. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences. abstract


  6. Liu, Y., C.R. Schwalm, K.E. Samuels-Crow, and K. Ogle (2019). Ecological memory of daily carbon exchange across the globe and its importance in drylands. Ecology Letters, 22:1806-1816. abstract
  7. Peltier, D.M.P. and K. Ogle (2019). Legacies of more frequent drought in ponderosa pine across the western United States. Global Change Biology, 25:3803-3816. abstract
  8. Peltier, D.M.P. and K. Ogle (2019). Legacies of La Niña: North American monsoon can rescue trees from winter drought. Global Change Biology, 25:121-133. abstract
  9. Guo, J.S. and K. Ogle (2019). Antecedent soil water content and vapor pressure deficit interactively control water potential in Larrea tridentata. New Phytologist, 221:218-232. abstract
  10. Ogle, K., D.M.P. Peltier, M. Fell, J. Guo, H. Kropp, and J.J. Barber (2019). Should we be concerned about multiple comparisons in hierarchical Bayesian models? Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10:553-564. abstract


  11. Ogle, K. (2018) Hyperactive soil microbes might weaken the terrestrial carbon sink. Nature, 560:32-33 (invited News & Views letter). abstract
  12. Fell M., J. Barber, J.W. Lichstein, and K. Ogle (2018). Multidimensional trait space informed by a mechanistic model of tree growth and carbon allocation. Ecosphere, 9(1):e02060. abstract
  13. Fell, M. and K. Ogle (2018). Refinement of a theoretical trait space for North American trees via environmental filtering. Ecological Monographs, 88:372-384. abstract
  14. Oberle, B., K. Ogle, A.E. Zanne, and C. Woodall (2018). When a tree falls: controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree failure and new risks in changing forests. PLoS ONE 13(5): e0196712. abstract
  15. Peltier, D.M.P., J.J. Barber, and K. Ogle (2018). Quantifying antecedent climatic drivers of tree growth in the Southwestern US. Journal of Ecology, 106:613-624. abstract
  16. Ryan, E., K. Ogle, H. Kropp, K. Samuels-Crow, Y. Carrillo, and E. Pendall (2018). Modelling soil CO2 production and transport with dynamic source and diffusion terms: Testing the steady-state assumption using DETECT v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11:1909-1928. abstract
  17. Samuels-Crow, K., E. Ryan, E. Pendall, and K. Ogle. (2018). Temporal coupling of subsurface and surface soil CO2 fluxes: Insights from a non-steady state model and cross-wavelet coherence analysis, Journal of Geosphysical Research – Biogeosciences, 123:1406-1424. abstract
  18. Truettner, C., W.R.L. Anderegg, F. Biondi, G.W. Koch, K. Ogle, C. Schwalm, M.E. Litvak, J.D. Shaw, and E. Ziaco (2018). Conifer radial growth response to recent seasonal warming and drought from the southwestern USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 418:55-62. abstract


  19. Harris, J.A., C.W. Marean, K. Ogle, and J. Thompson (2017). The trajectory of bone surface modification studies in paleoanthropology and a new Bayesian solution to the identification controversy. In press with Journal of Human Evolution, 111:69-81. abstract
  20. Kropp, H., K. Ogle, E.R. Vivoni, and K.R. Hultine (2017). The sensitivity of evapotranspiration to inter-specific plant neighbor interactions: Implications for models. Ecosystems, 20:1311-1323. abstract
  21. Ryan, E., K. Ogle, D. Peltier, A.P. Walker, M.G. De Kauwe, B.E. Medlyn, D.G. Williams, W. Parton, S. Asao, B. Guenet, A.B. Harper, X. Lu, K.A. Luus, S. Zaehle, S. Shu, C. Werner, J. Xia, and E. Pendall (2017). Gross primary production responses to warming, elevated CO2, and irrigation: quantifying the drivers of ecosystem physiology in a semiarid grassland. Global Change Biology, 23:3092-3106. abstract
  22. Schwalm, C.R., W.R.L. Anderegg, F. Biondi, G. Koch, M. Litvak, K. Ogle, J.D. Shaw, A. Wolf, and MsTMIP Participants (2017). Global patterns of drought recovery. Nature, 548:202-205. abstract
  23. Young-Roberston, J.M., K. Ogle, and J.M. Welker (2017). Thawing seasonal ground ice: An important water source for boreal forest plants in Interior Alaska. Ecohydrology, 10(3):e1796. abstract


  24. Dong, X., N. Grimm, and K. Ogle (2016). Temporal variability in hydrology modifies the influence of geomorphology on vegetation distribution along a desert stream. Journal of Ecology, 104:18-30. abstract
  25. Hinckley, E-L., G. Bonan, G. Bowen, B. Colman, P. Duffy, C. Goodale, B. Houlton, E. Marín-Spiotta, K. Ogle, S. Ollinger, E. Paul, P. Vitousek, K. Weathers, and D. Williams (2016). The soil and plant biogeochemistry sampling design for the National Ecological Observatory Network. Ecosphere, 7(3):e01234 (Special Feather: NEON Design). abstract
  26. Hungate, B.A., D.N. Kearns, K. Ogle, M. Caron, J.C. Marks, and H.W. Rogg (2016). Hydrogen isotopes as a sentinel of biological invasion by the Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman) PLOS ONE, 11(3): e0149599. abstract
  27. Kropp, H., K. Ogle, and M.F. Wojciechowski (2016). A framework for partitioning plant rooting profiles from neighbors using multiple data types. Journal of Vegetation Science, 27:587-595. abstract
  28. Oberle, B., K. Ogle, J.C. Penagos, J. Sweeney, and A. Zanne (2016). A Bayesian model for xylem vessel length accommodates subsampling and reveals skewed distributions in species that dominate seasonal habitats. Journal of Plant Hydraulics, 3:e003. abstract
  29. Ogle, K. and J.J. Barber (2016) Plant and ecosystem memory. CHANCE, 29:16-22. abstract
  30. Ogle, K., E. Ryan, F. Dijkstra, and E. Pendall (2016). Quantifying and reducing uncertainties in soil CO2 fluxes with hierarchical data-model integration. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences, 121:2935-2948. abstract
  31. Peltier, D.M.P., M. Fell, and K. Ogle (2016). Legacy effects of drought in the southwestern United States: A multi-species syntheses. Ecological Monographs, 86:312-326. abstract
  32. Tucker, C., S. Tamang, E. Pendall, and K. Ogle (2016). Shallow snowpack inhibits soil respiration in sagebrush steppe through multiple biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Ecosphere, 7:e01297. abstract

    2015 – moved from Arizona State university to Northern Arizona University

  33. Anderegg, W.R.L, C. Schwalm, F. Biondi, J.J. Camarero, G. Koch, M. Litvak, K. Ogle, J.D. Shaw, E. Shevliakova, A.P. Williams, A. Wolf, E. Ziaco, and S. Pacala (2015). Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models. Science, 349:528-532. abstract
  34. Barber, J.J., P. Gupta, W. Edwards, K. Ogle, and L. Waller. (2015). Combining and comparing multiple serial dilution assays of particles in solution with application to Brucellosis in elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Ecological and Environmental Statistics, 22:161-177. abstract
  35. Kropp, H. and K. Ogle (2015). Seasonal stomatal behavior and the influence of plant neighbors on stomatal conductance in a common desert shrub. Oecologia, 177:345-355. abstract
  36. Ogle, K. and E. Pendall (2015) Isotope partitioning of soil respiration: Bayesian solution to accommodate multiple sources of variability. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 120: 221-236. abstract
  37. Ogle, K., J.J. Barber, G.A. Barron-Gafford, L.P. Bentley, J.M. Cable, T.E. Huxman, M.E. Loik, and D.T. Tissue (2015). Quantifying ecological memory in plant and ecosystem processes. Ecology Letters, 18:221-235. abstract
  38. Ryan, E., K. Ogle, T.J. Zelikova, D.R. LeCain, D.G. Williams, J.A. Morgan, and E. Pendall (2015) Antecedent moisture and temperature conditions modulate the response of ecosystem respiration to elevated CO2 and warming. Global Change Biology, 21:2588-2602. abstract


  39. Barber, J.J. and  K. Ogle (2014). To P or not to P? Ecology, 95:621-626 abstract
  40. Barron-Gafford, G.A., J.M. Cable, L.P. Bentley, R.L. Scott, T.E. Huxman, G.D. Jenerette, and K. Ogle(2014). Quantifying the time scales over which exogenous and endogenous conditions affect soil respiration. New Phytologist, 202:442-454. abstract
  41. Evans, R.D., A. Koyama, D.L. Sonderegger, T.N. Charlet, B. Newingham, L.F. Fenstermaker, B. Harlow, V. Jin, K. Ogle, S.D. Smith, and R.S. Nowak (2014). Greater ecosystem carbon in the Mojave Desert after ten years exposure to elevated CO2. Nature Climate Change, 4:394-397. abstract
  42. Ogle, K., Pathikonda, S., K. Sartor, J.W. Lichstein, J. Osnas, and S.W. Pacala (2014). A model-based meta-analysis for estimating species-specific wood density and identifying potential sources of variation. Journal of Ecology, 102: 194-208. abstract
  43. Ogle, K., C. Tucker, and J.M. Cable (2014). Beyond simple linear mixing models: Process-based isotope partitioning of ecological processes. Ecological Applications, 24:181-195. abstract
  44. Pietsch, K., K. Ogle, H. Cornelissen, W. Cornwell, G. Bӧnisch, J. Craine, B. Jackson, J. Kattge, D. Peltzer, J. Penuelas, P. Reich, D. Wardle, J. Weedon, I. Wright, A. Zanne, and C. Wirth (2014). Global relationship of leaf and wood decomposability: the role of trait spectra, phylogeny and trait decomposability relations across organs. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23:1046-1057. abstract
  45. Tucker, C., J.M. Young, D. Williams, and K. Ogle. Process-based partitioning of winter soil respiration in a subalpine ecosystem reveals importance of rhizospheric respiration. Biogeochemistry, 121:389-408. abstract


  46. Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, G. Barron-Gafford, L.P. Bentley, W.L. Cable, R.L. Scott, D.G. Williams, and T.E. Huxman (2013). Antecedent conditions influence soil respiration differences in shrubs and grass patches. Ecosystems, 16:1230-1247. abstract
  47. Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, L.P. Bentley, W.R. Bolton, J. Welker, V. Romanovsky, H. Iwata, and Y. Harazono (2013). Permafrost thaw affects boreal deciduous plant transpiration through increased soil water, deeper thaw, and warmer soils. Ecohydrology, 4:982-997. abstract
  48. Gemoets, D., J.J. Barber, andK. Ogle (2013). Reversible jump MCMC for inference in a deterministic individual-based model of tree growth for studying forest dynamics. Environmetrics, 24: 433-448. abstract
  49. Mailloux, J.M., K. Ogle, and C.D. Frost (2013). Application of a Bayesian model to infer the contribution of coalbed natural gas produced water to the Powder River, Wyoming and Montana. Hydrological Processes, 28:2361-2381. abstract
  50. Newingham, B. A., C. H. Vanier, T. N. Charlet, K. Ogle, S. D. Smith, and R. S. Nowak (2013). No cumulative effect of ten years of elevated [CO2] on perennial plant biomass components in the Mojave Desert. Global Change Biology, 19:2168-2181. abstract
  51. Ogle, K., J.J. Barber, and K. Sartor (2013). Feedback and modularization in a Bayesian meta-analysis of tree traits affecting forest dynamics. Bayesian Analysis, 8:133-168. abstract
  52. Sonderegger, D., K. Ogle, R. D. Evans, R.S. Nowak, and S. Ferguson (2013). Temporal dynamics of fine roots under long-term exposure to elevated CO2 in the Mojave Desert. New Phytologist, 198:127-138. abstract
  53. Stahl, U., J. Kattge, B. Reu, W. Voigt, K. Ogle, J. Dickie, and C. Wirth (2013). Whole-plant trait spectra of North American woody plant species reflect fundamental ecological strategies. Ecosphere, 4:art128. abstract
  54. Tucker, C., J. Bell, E. Pendall, and K. Ogle (2013). Does declining carbon-use efficiency explain thermal acclimation of soil respiration with warming? Global Change Biology, 19:252-263. abstract


  55. Cable J.M., G. Barron-Gafford, K. Ogle, M. Pavao-Zuckerman, R.L. Scott, D.G. Williams, and T.E. Huxman (2012). Shrub encroachment alters sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature and moisture. Journal Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences, 117:G01001. abstract
  56. Ogle, K. and J.J. Barber (2012). Bayesian Statistics. In: A. Hastings, L. Gross (Eds.). Sourcebook in Theoretical Ecology. University of California Press, Berkeley.
  57. Ogle, K., R.W. Lucas, L.P. Bentley, J.M. Cable, G. Barron-Gafford, A. Griffith, D. Ignace, G.D. Jenerette, A. Tyler, T.E. Huxman, M.E. Loik, S.D. Smith, and D.T. Tissue (2012). Differential daytime and nighttime stomatal behavior in plants from North American deserts. New Phytologist, 194:464-476. abstract
  58. Resco de Dios, V., M.L. Goulden, K. Ogle, A.D. Richardson, D.Y. Hollinger, E.A. Davidson, J.G. Alday, G.A. Barron-Gafford, A. Carrara, A.S. Kowalski, W.C. Oechel, B.R. Reverter, R.L. Scott, R.K. Varner, R. Diaz-Sierra, and J.M. Moreno (2012). Endogenous circadian regulation of carbon dioxide exchange in terrestrial ecosystems. Global Change Biology, 18: 1956-1970. abstract

    2011 – moved from the University of Wyoming to Arizona State University

  59. Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, and D. Williams. (2011) Contribution of glacier meltwater to streamflow in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, inferred via a Bayesian mixing model applied to isotopic measurements. Hydrological Processes, 25:2228-2236.  abstract
  60. Hobbs, N.T. and K. Ogle. (2011) Introducing data-model assimilation to students of ecology. Ecological Applications, 21:1537-1545. abstract
  61. Kattge, J., K. Ogle, G. Boenisch, S. Díaz, S. Lavorel, J. Madin, K. Nadrowski, S. Noellert, K. Sartor, and C. Wirth. (2011) A generic structure for plant trait databases. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2:202-213. abstract
  62. Luo, Y., K. Ogle, C. Tucker, S. Fei, C. Gao, S. LaDeau, J. Clark, and D. Schimel. (2011) Ecological forecasting and data assimilation in a data-rich era. Ecological Applications, 21:1429-1442. abstract


  63. Cable J.M., K. Ogle, R.W. Lucas, T.N. Charlet, M. Cleary, B.E. Ewers, A. Griffith, T.E. Huxman, M.E. Loik, R.S. Nowak, E. Pendall, M. Rogers, S.D. Smith, H. Steltzer, P.F. Sullivan, D.T. Tissue, N.C. van Gestel, and J.M. Welker. (2010) The temperature responses of soil respiration in deserts: a seven desert synthesis. Biogeochemistry, 103:71-90. abstract
  64. Lichstein, J.W., J. Dushoff, K. Ogle, A. Chen, D.W. Purves, J.P. Caspersen, and S.W. Pacala. (2010) Unlocking the forest inventory data: relating individual-tree performance to unmeasured environmental factors. Ecological Applications, 20:684-699. abstract
  65. Resco, V., J.I. Querejeta, K. Ogle, J. Voltas, M.-T. Sebastia, P.Serrano-Ortiz, J.C. Linares, C. Moreno-Gutierrez, A. Herrero, J.A. Carreira, P. Torres-Canabate, and F. Valladares. (2010) Stable isotope views on ecosystem function: challenging or challenged? Biology Letters, 6:287-289. abstract


  66. Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, A.P. Tyler, M.A. Pavao-Zuckerman, and T.E. Huxman (2009) Woody plant encroachment impacts on soil carbon and microbial processes: Results from a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of soil incubation data. Plant and Soil, 320:153-167. abstract
  67. Ogle, K. (2009) Hierarchical Bayesian statistics: Merging experimental and modeling approaches in ecology. Ecological Applications 19:577-581. abstract
  68. Ogle, K., J.J. Barber, C. Willson, and B. Thompson (2009) Hierarchical statistical modeling of xylem vulnerability to cavitation. New Phytologist, 182:541-554. abstract
  69. Ogle, K. and S.W. Pacala (2009) A modeling framework for inferring tree growth and allocation from physiological, morphological, and allometric traits. Tree Physiology, 29:587-605. abstract
  70. Patrick, L.D., K. Ogle, and D.T. Tissue. (2009) A hierarchical Bayesian approach for estimation of photosynthetic parameters of C3 plants. Plant, Cell and Environment, 32:1695-1709. abstract
  71. Patrick, L.D., K. Ogle, D. Tissue, C.W. Bell, and J. Zak. (2009) Physiological responses of two contrasting desert plant species to precipitation variability are differentially regulated by soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics. Global Change Biology, 15:1214-1229. abstract
  72. Price, C.A., K. Ogle, E.P. White, and J. Weitz. (2009) Evaluating allometric scaling models in biology using hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Ecology Letters, 12:641-651. abstract


  73. Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, D.G. Williams, J. Weltzin, and T.E. Huxman. (2008) Soil texture drives responses of soil respiration to precipitation pulses in the Sonoran Desert: Implications for climate change. Ecosystems, 11:961-979. abstract
  74. Hui, D.F., Y.Q. Luo, D. Schimel, J.S. Clark, A. Hastings, K. Ogle, and M. Williams. (2008) Converting raw data into ecologically meaningful products: A meeting report on data-model assimilation in ecology: Techniques and applications, Norman, Oklahoma, 22-24 October 2007. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Jan 25, 2008.
  75. Ogle, K. and J.J. Barber. (2008) Bayesian data-model integration in plant physiological and ecosystem ecology. Progress in Botany, 69:281-311. abstract


  76. Ogle, K. (2007) A collection of computer-intensive methods. Book review. BioScience, 57:886-887.
  77. Purves, D.W., M.A. Zavala, K. Ogle, F. Prieto, and J.M. Rey-Benayas. (2007) Environmental heterogeneity, bird-mediated directed dispersal, and oak woodland dynamics in mediterranean Spain. Ecological Monographs, 77:77-97. abstract

    2006 – started faculty position at University of Wyoming

  78. Ogle, K., M. Uriarte, J. Thompson, J. Johnstone, A. Jones, Y. Lin, E. McIntire, and J. Zimmerman (2006). Implications of vulnerability to hurricane damage for long-term survival of tropical tree species: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis. In: J.S. Clark and A.E. Gelfand (Eds.) Hierarchical Modeling for the Environmental Sciences: Statistical Methods and Applications. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
  79. Reynolds, J.F., P.R. Kemp, K. Ogle, R.J. Fernández, Q. Gao, and J. Wu (2006). Modeling the unique attributes of desert ecosystems: Potentials and limitations based on lessons from the Jornada Basin. In: L.F. Huenneke, K.M. Havstad, W.H. Schlesinger (Eds.). Structure and Function of a Chihuahuan Desert Ecosystem: Long-term Ecological Research in the Jornada Basin, New Mexico. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
  80. Weitz, J.S., K. Ogle, and H.S. Horn (2006). Ontogenetically stable hydraulic design in woody plants. Functional Ecology, 20:191-199. abstract


  81. Huxman, T.E., K.A. Snyder, D. Tissue, A.J. Leffler, K. Ogle, W.T. Pockman, D.R. Sandquist, D.L. Potts, and S. Schwinning. (2004) Precipitation pulses and carbon fluxes in semi-arid and arid systems. Oecologia, 141:254-268. abstract
  82. Ogle, K. and J.F. Reynolds. (2004) Plant responses to precipitation in desert ecosystems: Integrating functional types, pulses, thresholds, and delays. Oecologia, 141:282-294. abstract
  83. Ogle, K., R.L. Wolpert, and J.F. Reynolds. (2004) Reconstructing plant root area and water uptake profiles. Ecology, 85:1967-1978. abstract
  84. Reynolds, J.F., P.R. Kemp, K. Ogle, and R.J. Fernández. (2004) Modifying the ‘pulse-reserve’ paradigm for deserts of North America: Precipitation pulses, soil water, and plant responses. Oecologia, 141:194-210. abstract

    2003 – finished PhD, started post-doc at Princeton

  85. Ogle, K. (2003) Implications of interveinal distance for quantum yield in C4 grasses: a modeling and meta-analysis. Oecologia, 136:532-542. abstract


  86. Ogle, K. and J.F. Reynolds. (2002) Desert dogma revisited: coupling of stomatal conductance and photosynthesis in the desert shrub, Larrea tridentata. Plant, Cell and Environment, 25:909-921. abstract


  87. Bugmann, H.K.M, S.D. Wullschleger, D.T. Price, K. Ogle, D.F. Clark, and A.M. Solomon. (2001) Comparing the performance of forest gap models in North America. Climatic Change, 51:349-388. abstract
  88. Norby, R.J., K. Ogle, P.S. Curtis, F.-W. Badeck, A. Huth, G.C. Hurtt, T. Kohyama, and J. Peñuelas. (2001) Aboveground growth and competition in forest gap models: an analysis for studies of climatic change. Climatic Change, 51:415-447. abstract


  89. Ogle, K., T.G. Whitham, and N.S. Cobb. (2000) Tree-ring variation in pinyon predicts the likelihood of death following severe drought. Ecology, 81:3237-3243. abstract

Accepted and/or In Press:

  • Peltier, D.P. and K. Ogle. Tree growth sensitivity to climate is temporally variable. To appear in Ecology Letters.
  • Pappalardo, P., K. Ogle, E.A. Hamman, J.R. Bence, B.A. Hungate, and C.W. Osenberg. Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis. To appear in Methods in Ecology & Evolution.
  • Laubmeier, A.N., B. Cazelles, K. Cuddington, K. Erickson, M.-J. Fortin, K. Ogle, C.K. Wikle, K. Zhu, and E. Zipkin. Ecological dynamics: Integrating empirical, statistical, and analytical methods. To appear in Trends in Ecology & Evolution.